In the old times, there was little to analyze. Therefore, you could tweak your system to a degree, but not in the way we can continually tweak and refine our trading approach today. Case in point, the settings of the bands. While the configuration is far simpler than many other indicators, it still provides you with the ability to run extensive optimization tests to try and squeeze out the last bit of juice from the stock.
The problem with this approach is after you change the length to My strong advice to you is not to tweak the settings at all. The information contained in the graphic will help you better understand the more advanced techniques detailed later in this article.
How to Profit From the Bollinger Squeeze
Many of you have heard of the classic technical analysis patterns such as double tops, double bottoms, ascending triangles, symmetrical triangles, head and shoulders top or bottom, etc. Well, the indicator can add that extra bit of firepower to your analysis by assessing the potential strength of these formations.
The first bottom of this formation tends to have substantial volume and a sharp price pullback that closes outside of the lower Bollinger Band. After the rally commences, the price attempts to retest the most recent lows that have been set to challenge the vigor of the buying pressure that came in at that bottom.
Many Bollinger Band technicians look for this retest bar to print inside the lower band. This indicates that the downward pressure in the stock has subsided and there is a shift from sellers to buyers. Also, pay close attention to the volume; you need to see it drop off dramatically. Below is an example of the double bottom outside of the lower band which generates an automatic rally.
Also, the candlestick struggled to close outside of the bands. Another simple, yet effective trading method is fading stocks when they begin printing outside of the bands. For example, instead of shorting a stock as it gaps up through its upper band limit, wait to see how that stock performs.
If the stock gaps up and then closes near its low and is still entirely outside of the bands, this is often a good indicator that the stock will correct on the near-term. You can then take a short position with three target exit areas: 1 upper band, 2 middle band or 3 lower band. As you can see from the chart, the candlestick looked terrible. The single biggest mistake that many Bollinger Band novices make is that they sell the stock when the price touches the upper band or buy when it reaches the lower band.
Bollinger himself stated a touch of the upper band or lower band does not constitute a buy or sell signal. Not only have I seen, but I have also traded the riding the bands strategy as a continuation setup. To my earlier point, price penetration of the bands alone cannot be a reason to short or sell a stock.
Notice how the volume exploded on the breakout and the price began to trend outside of the bands; these can be hugely profitable setups if you give them room to fly. I want to touch on the middle band again. Just as a reminder, the middle band is set as a period simple moving average in many charting applications. The middle line can represent areas of support on pullbacks when the stock is riding the bands. You could even increase your position in the stock when the price pulls back to the middle line. Regarding identifying when the trend is losing steam, failure of the stock to continue to accelerate outside of the bands indicates a weakening in the strength of the stock.
This would be a good time to think about scaling out of a position or getting out entirely. John created an indicator known as the band width.
The idea, using daily charts, is that when the indicator reaches its lowest level in 6 months, you can expect the volatility to increase. This goes back to the tightening of the bands that I mentioned above. This squeezing action of the Bollinger Band indicator foreshadows a big move.
BOLLINGER BANDS BOOK
You can use additional signs such as volume expanding, or the accumulation distribution indicator turning up. We need to have an edge when trading a Bollinger Band squeeze because these setups can head-fake the best of us. It immediately reversed, and all the breakout traders were head faked. Wait for some confirmation of the breakout and then go with it. If you are right, it will go much further in your direction.
Notice how the price and volume broke when approaching the head fake highs yellow line. Notice how leading up to the morning gap the bands were extremely tight.
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Now some traders can take the elementary trading approach of shorting the stock on the open with the assumption that the amount of energy developed during the tightness of the bands will carry the stock much lower. Another approach is to wait for confirmation of this belief. So, the way to handle this sort of setup is to 1 wait for the candlestick to come back inside of the bands and 2 make sure there are a few inside bars that do not break the low of the first bar and 3 short on the break of the low of the first candlestick.
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No more panic, no more doubts. The below chart depicts this approach. Below is a snapshot of Google from April 26, Notice how GOOG gapped up over the upper band on the open, had a small retracement back inside of the bands, then later exceeded the high of the first candlestick. These sorts of setups can prove powerful if they end up riding the bands. This strategy is for those of us that like to ask for very little from the markets. Essentially you are waiting for the market to bounce off the bands back to the middle line.
You are not obsessed with getting in a position and it wildly swinging in your favor. Nor are you looking to be a prophet of sorts and try to predict how far a stock should or should not run. By not asking for much, you will be able to safely pull money out of the market on a consistent basis and ultimately reduce the wild fluctuations of your account balance, which is common for traders that take big risks.
The key to this strategy is waiting on a test of the mid-line before entering the position. You can increase your likelihood of placing a winning trade if you go in the direction of the primary trend and there is a sizable amount of volatility. As you can see in the above example, notice how the stock had a sharp run-up, only to pull back to the mid-line. You would want to enter the position after the failed attempt to break to the downside. You can then sell the position on a test of the upper band. If you have an appetite for risk, you can ride the bands to determine where to exit the position.
This is honestly my favorite of the strategies. If I gave you any other indication that I preferred one of the other signals, forget whatever I said earlier. First, you need to find a stock that is stuck in a trading range. The greater the range, the better. Now, looking at this chart, I feel a sense of boredom coming over me. However, from my experience, the guys that take money out of the market when it presents itself, are the ones sitting with a big pile of cash at the end of the day.
In the above example, you just buy when a stock tests the low end of its range and the lower band. Conversely, you sell when the stock tests the high of the range and the upper band. The key to this strategy is a stock having a clearly defined trading range. This way you are not trading the bands blindly but are using the bands to gauge when a stock has gone too far.
Bollinger on Bollinger Bands / Edition 1
However, by having the bands, you can validate that a security is in a flat or low volatility phase, by reviewing the look and feel of the bands. So, instead of trying to win big, you just play the range and collect all your pennies on each price swing of the stock. Like anything else in the market, there are no guarantees.