It is a trade because I am aligning my money with what is more likely than not to happen. I expect it to go wrong, I plan for it to go wrong, I am ready to act the second it does go wrong.
I will also have several eyes peeking at the other runners, again looking for an early warning that something is not going to pan out how I want. At this point, I am out, usually before it actually does so. This stop loss can be automated in trading software. Some markets can stay within their ranges right up to the off, but I will usually expect at least one attempted breakout as they do often test their boundaries at some point before the off.
With this method, the best trading period in my experience is between 10 and 5 minutes from the off, 2 minutes at the very latest. When it gets closer than 5 minutes to the off I find more chance of range breakouts, 2 minutes from the off they are even more likely. I had a look around on Youtube for a video which might show a rangey market nicely for those readers who have not looked at this stuff before. Here is a market which firstly looks tricky regardless of any significant things happening to make it even more tricky, and something did happen to do that, a horse was withdrawn.
These are nasty races for beginners generally, you can almost throw all the early analysis out of the window!
Horse Racing Betfair Trading Strategy: Pre-Race & In-Running
But this video is perfect for showing here. When I opened this video up and saw the first glimpse of the ladders, I very nearly closed the window as it looked to be of no use whatsoever in showing the type of rangey market I am discussing here. But for some reason I was intrigued enough to watch it through and I am glad I did. Even in an erratic and volatile market which has just had a hand grenade thrown into it, look how quickly a range formed.
Again, this is NOT my idea of a perfect example of a tight range but loosely I would say it quickly became apparent that this horse had a range of 1. Watch it again, and count how many times it hit the end of the range and reversed. How many range trades could you have had in this market? He now waits for things to settle down and get some clarity again. What actually happened here is someone wanted to back a grand or whatever on this horse, and decided to back it down at 1.
Instantly those lay orders which were hoovered up were replaced with plenty more. Look at 1. Regardless of the back bet which has just gone through the market, it is clear that 1. Just after he enters, it dives one tick below his lay. He wisely gets out as for a split second it looked like a strong move down. If he had held one more tick, he would have stayed in for the subsequent return up the range. I would point out here that in no way am I criticising the master of Betfair racing trading which is Peter Webb by the way.
I am sure in his own hindsight what a wonderful thing that is he would have held that extra tick anyway. If that makes sense, you are really tuned in now! Exiting takes more balls than entering, remember that when your ego is taking a bashing :. Also notice what a big chunk of lay money bangs in at 1. This is further confirmation that serious money is resisting this price moving lower than 1. It hits 1. The 2k or so backers money at 1. That was two clear challenges to breaking out of the top of the range, both failed. There is even a solid effort from a spoofer at 1.
The money looked spoofish simply due to the sum being so much bigger than most bets entering the ladder, and it was confirmed as the spoofer pulled it out and ran for the hills when it came close to getting matched! Spotting the spoof… The traded volume bar on the right shows In other words he bottled it and cancelled his order as it was never intended to actually get matched. If that 5k bet was matched by a layer, that would have added 10k to the traded volume bar at that price. Another way to spot a weak attempt at spoofing is to see where it sits on the ladder.
If you see regular very large sums in relation to the rest of the bets landing one tick away from the current prices then you are probably seeing spoof bets trying to push the market actually the other traders around. A tick away from the action gives the spoofer a bit more time to cancel it. I would love to watch someone spend a day quickly matching all spoof bets, that would be fun! He orders a back bet at 1. He then cancels it at Watch the back money build up in seconds to over 2. Breakout time! Notice how hard it resisted the next attempt, but the layers finally overcame the backers and 1.
How many warnings did you see there? It did briefly break through, then the range boundary still dragged it back down briefly before losing for good the final time. Once 1. Watch it several times and you will actually start to feel the market forces pushing and pulling. It has to really.
My Experience Trying To Make Money Trading On Betfair
The rest of the video is not of much use, other than to show that this breakout was strongly resisted even after it broke, there was strong backers money just slowing down the drift until it finally lets rip and gets up over 1. In this example, I would definitely not have believed it was a ranging one from early analysis. I want to see much clearer traded volume bands than this race showed. I can not and would not criticise Peter Webb when it comes to trading. Peter Webb knows far too much to accuse him of that, and he was clearly spot on in waiting and planning for the move he wanted to trade there.
Trying to watch, learn, AND have money at risk all at the same time is a surefire way to failure. You will be shaken out of trading in no time. You will quickly learn what a ranging market is versus a trending one. Trending ones move even faster and are even more volatile, so they take even longer to learn to trade in my opinion. After a year of trading trends and ranges, you might be somewhere near ready to start trading reversals!
Another year and you might be able to trade a trend, and then the subsequent reversal tacked onto the end!! The nicest part of range trading is the stop loss issue. When trading a trend, you have to constantly move your stop loss to protect some green. Why make green if you are not securing some along the way?
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Range trading is different. In the example of a favourite trading between 1. One other nice thing about range trading is the dilemma of when to make your entry. You can just drop in two orders, a lay order down the bottom and a back order up the top. When one of the orders is taken, you now switch on a bit and basically defend yourself against the risks.
Bet Angel Markers – Custom volume indicators
If so, you now know the range may be under threat. Are the other horses staying in their range? Are any other horses playing up? Remember the see-saw analogy….. Assuming all looks good, you just wait until your horse moves to the other end of his range, and you bank your green with a satisfying click, and often get back in for the return journey to the other end of the range. Obviously this sounds as easy as cake, and often it can be just that easy. You need to be alert. Calm, but alert. The closer it is to the off, the more likely it is that the above threats can harm your trade.
Betfair Horse Racing Trading: How to Make Money Trading on the Horses
So a good tip might be to just start by watching only the minutes pre-off period, less is likely to happen unexpectedly, but it always can. There are various other approaches I use, including an occasional scalp which I use increasingly rarely these days but if bored I might steal a tick or two if it looks just too easy to ignore!
There are obviously about sixty-five million other words I could write which would all be relevant and useful here.