Trading system win rate

We are here for to make money! Is there more to it? Now, As you are growing to become a professional trader in your own right, allow me guide you on how to tell a winning trading strategy apart from the rest so you can smell the bull shit fro far away!

In this article, I will teach you how to recognise a winning strategy at first glance. To achieve this, the article is structured into sections that include What is trading strategy and distinction between a good strategy and a bad strategy What are 8 most important features of a trading system or strategy Ready? What is a trading strategy? Before going deep into this discussion, let us answer a few questions, shall we?

This is because few reasons: Humans are risk averse so we seek strategies with no losses. If we see a system or strategy with no losses, we tend to ignore the logic and maths.

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Remember: Accuracy is the most overrated metrics in trading. In few simple steps: decide on metrics, collect data and analyse the figures. Risk to reward ratio of your strategy — are your winners bigger than your losses? The market conditions in which it works best- Do you make money in trending markets and break even in ranges or do you lose money when the market trends?


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The best time frame where it can be trades- Does it work on higher time frames or lower time frames or both? The best currency pairs- What pairs you get the best results? There are a number of ways you can obtain these numbers Back testing- This is where you look at historical data to determine instances where your trading system would have yielded positive or negative results.

Win/Loss Ratio Definition

Demo trade — This is where you open a virtual account and trade the real markets with virtual cash. You can then use the results from your trades to determine your win rate among other metrics. It is important to obtain the most reliable figures you can get. The truth is: trading in the real time is what counts and you need to know if the strategy works in real time and if you can execute it in the real time or not The best way to do it is to use the visual mode in the Strategy tester in MetaTrader 4.

Pause, trade and start again Record your results and analyse your results in a spreadsheet. Be honest with yourself. If the stats show otherwise, drop it and move on.

The Hidden Truth Behind High Win Rate Systems

If the trader achieves the above equity curve trading the sideways market below, it shows that the trader is a trend follower and well able to produce consistent results in both rising and falling markets Again, considering that this equity curve is generated from about trading days , the results must be representative of the various market conditions and seasonality in the markets.

To me, this trade has no money management at all. Large winners around were lucky and not planned. There is no consistency visible in this equity curve.

Win/Loss Ratio

I would not invest in this trader as he might expose my capital to large losers And this is how you can tell the difference between a bad trading strategy and a good one Did you know that there are so many traders who have publicly published their trading results on a platform called myfxbook Here is a table that I have retrieved from the site showing some of the trading strategies and their relative performance There are about strategies that have been listed on the site. In this list, Forex Armor EA has been ranked top. Let us look at some metrics from this strategy This is a positive equity curve for the Forex Armor EA which is an automated trading system.

They cash small losses and accumulate large, unrealised losses in the background.


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  • The winners must be bigger than losers. The trader must have been trading the strategy for over 2 years.

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    Stop losses are must No unrealised losses are accumulated On the flipside, A bad trading strategy is exactly the opposite of the good strategy. Some characteristics of a bad trading strategy include: An erratic equity curves Small wins and big losers- indicative that your risk reward is bad Spikes in growth or loses- indicative that you do not have a well-thought-out money management plan. One that appears to have traded well for a few months then plummeted. What are the 8 salient features of a winning trading strategy?

    Needs to be consistent Check to see if the strategy yields consistent returns as will be shown by a steady rising equity curve. Needs to yield more profits than losses Bear this in mind, you are in the trading business to make money. Needs to be repeatable A good trading strategy is one that is repeatable. Such a strategy should be able to protect you in seasons of boom and recession. Needs to be non-subjective Most of the trading systems available today are subjective in nature.

    Needs to fit your personality as a trader Do you know who you are as a trader? Choose a strategy that agrees with your personality. Trend following trader by nature will fail trying to trade reversals. Swing trader by nature will never make money trading 15 min charts etc. The answer to this is no, because if every other participant in the market was only Long, well then there would be no one in the market waiting to take that sell position for you. Because when you are wrong and you close your position someone else is ready to enter the market in the opposite direction. Therefore, it did exist the market would not move because everyone would be correct every single time.

    The answer is through money management, as they will make more money when they are right as oppose to when they lose money and they are wrong. Why do so many trades always bounce from system to system when they begin their trading career? Hello, could you explain the Lag part?

    How to Make Consistent Profits in Forex Trading

    You have two lines and firstly they are in separate windows and the other time they are together. Hi I am new to trading and was wondering if your strategy is working also with the post brexit situation? Your email address will not be published. Necessary cookies are absolutely essential for the website to function properly. This category only includes cookies that ensures basic functionalities and security features of the website. These cookies do not store any personal information.


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