This article examines the stages of a forex trend and how they affect investors. For the most part, an economy that is strong will also have a strong currency. Economic strength attracts investment, and investment creates demand for a currency. The demand for gold as an alternative to fiat currencies has led to a currency demand in those countries that produce gold such as Australia, South Africa and Canada.
Note how the economic factors, in this case, a demand for gold and the higher interest rates in Australia around to , created a demand for the Australian currency. This type of demand will last until the exchange rate becomes too high and negatively affects Australian exports. In addition, factors in other economies should be considered since no single currency can act in isolation of the rest of the world's economies.
While the price exchange rate oscillated back and forth in a regression channel, providing some short-term trades in the opposite direction, the prevailing upward trend remained intact. In the chart below, the Canadian dollar strengthened against the U. Canada is also a commodities -producing country, with a lot of natural resources. In the case of the Australian dollar chart, there is an upward-sloping growth path as the demand for Australian dollars increase.
Since the Australian currency is the base currency and the U. On the other hand, in the case of the Canadian dollar against the U. Thus the chart shows the U. The conventional wisdom among traders is that "the trend is your friend. Of course, the difficult questions to answer are whether a trend exists at all or just a sideways-trading range and where and when a trend will start and where and when it will end.
Using Forex Price Action to Evaluate Momentum
We first look at the question of where a trend could start and, once started, where to take part in the action. To answer these questions, we need technical analysis. To keep our analysis as simple as possible, we create a chart that uses a weekly time frame and uses only two indicators. The first indicator is a simple period moving average calculated on the closing prices. However, to add a cushion, we also add an additional period simple moving average , but this time calculated on the price highs.
Then, we add another period simple moving average calculated on the price lows. The result is a moving average channel that reflects a dynamic price equilibrium. We use this channel to determine when prices are trending up and when prices are trending down. We assume that if prices break below the channel, there is a potential downtrend, and if they break above the channel, there is a potential uptrend.
Also notice that when a market trends in either direction, there is a tendency for prices to move away from the channel and to return to the channel as volatility increases and decreases, respectively. With volatility, prices always tend to revert to the mean over a period. This reversion to the mean provides either buying or selling opportunities depending on the direction of the trend.
In addition to the moving averages, we also add an RSI set to a two-period, instead of the usual period, with the plot guides set to 90 and 10 instead of the usual 70 and The chart shows some interesting opportunities.
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Each time the RSI reaches an extreme at the plot guide, it provides a sell opportunity while the trend is downward and prices are below the channel. Each time the RSI reaches the plot guide, the price has also moved back to the channel providing a new opportunity to sell in the direction of the trend. Conversely, as the trend moves upward, prices revert to the channel at the same time as the RSI reaches the plot guide providing new buying opportunities. Trading in the above manner means trading only in the direction of the trend each time it corrects, thus providing a new opportunity to participate.
Many traders will look to trade reversals. A reversal point is always where a trend starts or ends. To find these potential reversal points, we look for price patterns such as double or triple tops or bottoms , Fibonacci levels or trend lines. A reversal often occurs at a Therefore, it is also useful to plot the Fibonacci lines on the weekly charts and then see the outcome on the daily chart as prices approach one of the Fib levels.
What is Forex Trading and How Does it Work?
Some trends are stronger than others. In fact, some trends become so exuberant that prices form a j-shaped or parabolic curve. On the next chart, we see an example of an irrational parabolic-shaped price curve of the World Silver Index.
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It is irrational because traders are pushing silver prices up, as the whole commodities complex is benefiting from strong fund flows into futures and ETFs without there being an equal and natural demand for the underlying product. This is a case of "musical chairs. The " spinning top " candlestick on the weekly silver chart should be a strong warning sign to traders that the trend could be ending.
In the case of the Canadian and Australian dollars the first two charts above , the curve shape follows a more normal upward slope than the silver price. Traders should always be aware of the curve shapes since parabolic curves indicate a " bubble " mentality developing in the market.
A reader familiar with the Elliot Wave will observe that trending markets move in a five-step impulsive wave followed by a three-step ABC correction. Many investors prefer to count pivots , and they look for between 7 and 11 advancing pivots, particularly noting the pivot count as the price reaches a strong resistance level. This can be a very accurate predictive tool of upcoming price direction. Therefore, this is where price action Forex indicators come into play.
Furthermore, price action trading encompasses price action strategies from key levels in the market. Sometimes you do not need to create a complex Forex strategy - a plain price chart and some common sense can be enough. Additionally, by combining price action setups with hot points in the market, such as core support and resistance levels and dynamic resistance and support levels, you can learn to pick accurate entries that provide you with the best chance of getting into a profitable trade.
Price action strategies can be traded in any financial market, and on any time-frame you prefer. It is advisable that traders concentrate their efforts on trading higher time-frames first, with the main time frame being the daily chart in particular. Did you know that it's possible to trade with virtual currency, using real-time market data and insights from professional trading experts, without putting any of your capital at risk?
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The answer is very simple - price is the essence of any financial market.
It resembles maths. If you do not understand the terms of the task, you will not be able to provide any solutions. Thus, if you do not know how to read the price action of a market, then you are unlikely to know how to make sense of what a price chart is telling you. As a result, you will not know how to trade Forex using price action.
How to Read Forex Chart Patterns
Every trader who tries to convince you that it is easier to trade from indicators or trading software other than price action indicators, is unaware of the reality of the markets. The reality of the markets is that current price is the ultimate result of all variables connected to the markets.
What is the point in concerning yourself with analysing anything but this price movement? FX traders tend to fall into the traps of using unreliable Forex indicators and FX robots, simply because the people selling them exaggerate their effectiveness. To fully understand Forex price action, it is important to comprehend that there is no easy way to make money in this world. Remember that any shortcuts that you believe you have found in the markets are merely temporary. By learning price action, you are giving yourself a better chance at Forex trading success.
Moreover, specialists in any field are typically the people earning the majority of money, not just ordinary people who might know a little bit about a range of things. Therefore, try to truly master one setup prior to moving on to the next one. Overtrading is an account killer, and no trader is invincible. By focusing your attention on the higher time-frames, you can benefit from their ability to filter price noise on the lower time-frames, and consequently enhance your overall winning percentage.
Many traders have accomplished this, and occasionally they share their experience with novices. In other words, you can considerably reduce your learning curve, and also avoid a lot of trial and error by following the advice of skilled and proven price action traders.